I’ll put my predictions out from the start of the article First Place: Daniela Ryf, Second Place Anne Haug, Third Place Lucy Charles-Barcley!!! That’s who I think, but what about the experts?
Well Thorsten Radde of TriRating.com predicts Daniela Ryf for first, Anne Haug for second and Laura Phillip for third. Check out his 2022 Kona Rating Report here for an extremely in depth analysis. Thorsten is legendary with the accuracy of his Kona predictions and goes to a lot of effort analysing all the professional Ironman results throughout a session and making predictions for all races, but let’s be honest everything builds towards Kona.
In his article for Triathlete.com Thorston gives Daniela a 40% chance of winning the race. It is hard to bet against her having won at Kona 2015 to 2018 and then again at St George this year to win the 2021 World Champs. He rates Anne a 20% chance of winning, and as the last champion at Kona and it is likely to be her run strength to carry her to success today. Laura is rated a 15% chance of winning by Thorston with some scorching times including an 8:18 this year at Hamburg. Although Lucy has recovered from injury he still ranks her at 10% chance of victory today. her strong swim will put her at the front of the field from the gun. At the 70.3 World Champs last year she had the fastest splits for all three disciplines.
Read Thorsten’s article here.
Both Craig Alexander & Mark Allen believe Daniela Ryf is deserving of her favourite status. Craig predicts Laura Philip for second place. Like me Craig picks Lucy for third place. Mark Allen agrees that Laura Philip is likely to be next on the podium and has the potential to give Daniela a run for her money.
The Team at Global Triathlon Network also predict Daniela Ryf as a clear favourite due to her history at Kona and her dominating victories this year. They have Anne Haug as second due to her status as defending Kona champion and victory at Challenge Roth. For third place they have predicted Laura Philip due to her fast victories since her fourth place in Kona 2019.
Matt LeGrand has also gone with Anne Haug to move through the field the entire day to finish third, he believes Laura Phillip is due for a big race to finish 2nd, with Daniela Ryf for the win believing she is unbeatable with a dominating bike ride.
Link to his video here.
Who do you think will win? Add your picks to the comments below…..